May US PCE inflation tops 4%, leaves Fed hike on the table - AOL

What We Know

Reports on the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauge for May show headline inflation broke above 4.0% for the first time in about three years. Coverage says the pickup was driven in part by higher energy costs tied to the Middle East conflict. That stronger print has revived discussion that the Federal Reserve could move from a ‘hawkish hold’ stance to an actual rate increase.

Different outlets quantifying the release indicate a headline reading around 4.1% and cite core PCE (which excludes food and energy) at about 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest core reading in roughly three years. One writeup notes monthly headline inflation rose 0.4%. Financial and prediction markets reacted: contracts and odds for an upcoming Fed hike climbed immediately (reports cite a jump in implied hike odds and activity on exchanges such as Kalshi). The immediate consequence in reporting is that a Fed rate hike remains a plausible policy move rather than a remote possibility.